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This is an abridged translation of an article that first appeared in German in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung see Sinn and Sinn Europe is debating further moves towards a transfer union, following the implicit and explicit transfers in the form of fiscal rescue programmes and monetary bail-out operations by the ECB.
French President François Pasirinkimo galimybių analizė and his young Minister of Economy Emmanuel Macron are now proposing a fiscal union complete with a common budget, a pooling of old debts, a common deposit insurance, a common unemployment insurance, a common finance minister and a common parliament Hollande and Macron As their proposal happens to coincide with the twenty-fifth anniversary of German reunification, which has led to the establishment of an intra-German transfer union, it might be useful to review the German experience in detail before further, and irrevocable, steps are taken to transform the Eurozone.
In fact, it turns out that the German example should actually serve a warning for those who want to move ahead as quickly as possible, since it has been far crypto forum fr successful than outsiders seem to assume.
While East German cities have all been beautifully renovated and reunification succeeded politically, East German productivity has crypto forum fr very little progress in the last twenty years.
Over the 19 years from early to latea net number ofEast Germans emigrated to the western portion of the country, on top of thewho had done so in the years before.
If GDP is calculated not with reference to the population as a whole but in terms of people in gainful employment, the convergence looks somewhat better.
This is, however, not a particularly relevant measure, because the labour productivity measured in this way can be raised to any level by wage rises and the associated elimination of less productive jobs. Figure 1. East-West Germany convergence Notes: 1.
A further point is the artificial inflation of eastern GDP resulting from salary harmonisation in the public sector. The lack of productivity convergence contrasts sharply with the convergence in living standards, which has indeed evolved satisfactorily.
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This is in part the effect of a progressive tax system, which automatically redistributes from west to east, but also of the transfers via the federal budget, the Solidarity Pact II and the pension system. The effect exerted by the national pension system can be seen in the upper forex pivot strategija curves of the chart.
These figures result from the generosity with which the pension-relevant years of East Germans were incorporated into the western pension system, recognising their long and uninterrupted occupational histories under communism. All of this has been extremely costly for West Germany. Currently, crypto forum fr net transfers through public budgets amount crypto forum fr 70 billion euros per year, totalling some 1. What lies behind the stall in economic convergence? In our opinion, it is the overhasty adjustment of wages.
As the chart shows, the effect of this wage bargaining-by-proxy was that hourly wages rose significantly faster than overall productivity in terms of GPD per capita This was expected and observed early on see Sinn and Sinn Crypto forum fr below the one-to-one currency conversion would have reduced the real income of East German citizens and would have provoked a revolt.
However, the proxy wage negotiations made wages increase to much higher levels. It is no surprise that international investors, who were champing at the bit, revised their investment plans in view of this reality, deciding eventually not to come.
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Sony, for one, chose to vacate its planned European headquarters at Potsdamer Platz in Berlin. Investments fuel wage rises, because they increase the demand for labour, but wages cannot run ahead of investment, since investors will then fail to come. It is like revolving doors at the airport: you can only cross them at a moderate pace — if you rush, they will stop. The German government tried to avert the disaster by instituting massive tax relief to counter the devastating effects of the wage rush.
This spurred investment in capital-intensive companies and property, but created only a few jobs. In the end, three-fourths of the industrial jobs in the former East Germany were lost. While 4.
It is true that many jobs were created in construction and services, but these are areas safe from international competition. Despite mass emigration and early retirement, the unemployment rate in the new federal states including Berlin today is 9.
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The Social Union agreed in the summer of between West and East Germany, and later anchored in the Reunification Treaty, cushioned the consequences of massive unemployment through social transfers. However, the social transfers themselves created further unemployment, since their nature as replacement income in effect set a floor for the wages below which, understandably, East Germans were not willing to work.